Supply Chain, Odds-On

Your plan started deviating
the moment you published it.

Every purchase order, production order, and stock transfer is a bet on your business. Pillar AI tells you the odds - so you win 4 out of 5.

Know the Odds with River → How It Works Knowledge Base
3-5%+
Working Capital Freed
Up to 7%
Demand MAPE Improvement
4:1
Win-to-Loss Ratio
0
Workflow Disruption
01 / The Problem

You already know there's a gap between your plan
and reality. Here's why.

You're betting on plans and changes, but you don't know the odds.

02 / River

What if you could run your supply chain
like a champion poker player plays a table?

A champion doesn't predict the next card. They know the probability of what's coming, and they adjust their bets accordingly. They see the table and what has occurred. When the odds look good, they bet big. When they're low, they pull back.

Your supply chain works the same way. Demand has a curve of likelihood. So does supply. The result is an inventory profile at every product, location, and time period.

River by Pillar AI turns your planners into sharks at the table. It evaluates thousands of possible outcomes and tells you the odds, so every decision you make increases the expected value.

Demand Probability Distribution
Demand is Uncertain
Not a single forecast, but a full probability curve. Our AI runs thousands of Monte Carlo scenarios to map every possible demand outcome.
Supply Probability Distribution
Supply is Uncertain
Lead time variability, supplier reliability, yield rates. We model the full distribution of when and how much arrives.
Combined Inventory Risk Distribution
Inventory Risk Has a Shape
When demand and supply uncertainty combine, the result is a complex inventory distribution with stockout risk on the left and excess risk on the right. Traditional safety stock can't cover these tail risks. We quantify them.
03 / Your Tuesday Morning

This is what lands on your desk.
Every day.

Excess Risk Model A7250 @ Indianapolis
76%
chance of inventory exceeding target by 250% in week 6
Your sales promotion plan only has an 8% chance of meeting plan. You're about to be sitting on a mountain of product.
Recommended Action
Reduce promotional forecast by 50% and cut purchase order by 75%.
82% chance of landing within range
Stockout Risk Model Z4329 @ Las Vegas
87%
chance of stock-out in 6 weeks
Sales are exceeding forecast by 25% and your next delivery has a 45% chance of being late. You're running out.
Recommended Action
Expedite transportation on order and increase next production order by 40%.
79% chance of keeping in stock

Not a dashboard you have to go check. Not an alert with no action. A specific recommendation with a probability of success, for every product, every location, every week.

Ready to see the odds on your inventory?

Contact Pillar AI →
04 / Proof

A Fortune 500 CPG company ran a
6-week pilot. Here's what happened.

15%
Reduction in
inventory outliers
2-4%
Cash savings
as % of inventory value
2-4%
Operating cost
savings annualized
4:1+
Win-to-loss ratio
across all segments

Equal or better service levels maintained. View the details in our knowledge base.

05 / Zero Disruption

River runs alongside your existing APS.
Nothing changes for your planners.

Step 1
Your APS Creates Plan
Kinaxis / SAP / o9 - business as usual
→
Step 2
River Simulates & Recommends
Runs daily in the background
→
Step 3
Automated Plan Update, or

Planners Review & Execute

Positive EV actions, better outcomes
✓ Your plan still lives in your APS and ERP
✓ No new UI to learn, no workflow disruption for planners
✓ Planners review recommendations and decide what to act on
✓ Supplemental probability info available only if desired
"We just spent millions on our APS. Are you asking us to replace it?"
No. We make it smarter.
06 / Your Journey

Start by learning the odds.
Grow to training agents to play them for you.

Phase 1

Learning

Make inventory target bets in specific time periods. Develop rules of thumb for which bets to take to drive toward your business objectives.

Phase 2

Mastering

Adjust specific orders or inventory targets in specific periods. Refine rules to match your risk profile, stability requirements, and business objectives.

Phase 3

Automating

Agents make adjustments based on driving to best expected value. Probability information, risk profile, and business objectives influence agent actions autonomously.

Customers see results in the Learning phase. You go deeper only when you're ready.

07 / The Team

Built by people who've spent their careers
on this exact problem.

Jeff Alpert, CEO & Co-Founder of Pillar AI
Jeff Alpert
CEO & Co-Founder
Princeton University. 12 years in management consulting. Former Noodle.ai. Spent his career watching enterprises struggle with the gap between plan and reality.
Aldo Marini, CTO & Co-Founder of Pillar AI
Aldo Marini
CTO & Co-Founder
Carnegie Mellon. Banco de Mexico. Former Noodle.ai. Built probabilistic systems for central banking before bringing that same mathematical rigor to supply chain.
Experience the Pillar AI Difference

Contact Pillar AI. Own the Odds.

Let's schedule a demo to show exactly how River arms your planners with odds to achieve greater outcomes. Filling out this form also unlocks long-form content in our knowledge base.

Fill out the form to get in touch — we'll respond within one business day.