[ NEXT-GEN SUPPLY CHAIN ]

Probabilistic Planning is the Future

Stop Guessing. Start Knowing.

Traditional systems plan to a single number. Pillar AI shows you the full probability distribution, predicting outcomes across thousands of scenarios. Cut up to 20% working capital while improving service.

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Risk Quantification

Probability Single Number Inventory -90 60 210
Point estimate only: no risk visibility

Supply chain planning is fighting today's battles with yesterday's tools

Single-point forecasts can't handle variability. Planners inherit safety stock targets from backward-looking averages, then firefight when reality diverges. Stockouts and excess inventory are symptoms of the same disease: deterministic planning in a probabilistic world.

Probability 29% stockout risk 21% excess risk 50% on-target prob -90 0 60 150 210
Full distribution with quantified tail risks

Our Solution

We model the full probability curve, not just point estimates. Demand has a distribution. Supply has a distribution. Inventory compounds both. We quantify the probability of stockouts and excess before they happen, then recommend corrections that maximize your win:loss ratio.

Real Impact. Measurable Value.

3-5%+ Working Capital Freed with Equal or Better Service
4-5:1 Win:Loss Ratio
100% Portfolio Coverage
3-5% Demand MAPE Improvement

What Our Customers Say

"After implementing probabilistic planning, we achieved 4-6% reduction in stockout and excess events and freed up 3-5%+ in working capital—while maintaining service levels."
— Global Consumer Products
"We have plenty of excess capacity, and yet somehow we go out of stock all the time. Some products have too much inventory, and some have too little. The planning system is not working"
— Global Specialty Chemicals CIO
"25% of my yearly sales in China occurs on one day. But I have to order the raw materials 6 months in advance. There is no process or system to support it. We just make up the demand number by convening a few people, with little sense of tradeoff. It's heavily biased."
— Global Cosmetics Manufacturer SVP Supply Chain

Enter Pillar AI.

Unlock full visibility. Place Better Bets. Our artificial intelligence unveils the concealed potential in your supply chain data.

Run Leaner

Free up millions in working capital while maintaining or improving service levels. Stop tying up cash in excess inventory.

Reduce Inventory Outliers

Dramatically reduce outlier inventory events, both very high (excess) and very low (stockout risk), through proactive corrections.

Prevent Lost Sales

Reduce out-of-stock and lost sales events by identifying stockout risks before they happen and recommending preemptive action.

Inventory as Bets

Every inventory position is a bet. We quantify the odds: "Your current inventory has a 65% chance of creating excess stock." Then we improve the bet mathematically.

Digital Twin

Our AI-powered system creates a unified data model that ingests and harmonizes data from various sources, running thousands of Monte Carlo simulations.

Automated at Scale

Thousands of SKU-node level recommendations per week, sorted by monetary impact. The system catches what humans can't.

Risk Calibration

Tune aggressiveness based on your preference: more inventory reduction vs. more service protection.

Demand MAPE Improvement

Our transformer-based AI outperforms traditional ML models on point forecasts and produces well-calibrated probability distributions.

Continuous Learning

Our AI models continuously learn from changing patterns and user inputs, offering real-time updates to forecasts and recommendations.

Every Inventory Position is a Bet

Traditional planning makes blind bets, leaving planners to guess at the odds and make adjustments based on feel. We tell you the actual odds and improve your bets mathematically.

How It Works

Your current inventory position is a bet you've placed on future demand. We calculate the probability distribution of outcomes for that bet. You see the odds of stockout vs. excess before you act.

When the odds are unfavorable, we recommend adjustments to improve the bet. A "win" means the adjustment prevented a stockout or excess event. A "loss" means the adjustment was unnecessary or insufficient. We only recommend adjustments where the expected value is strongly positive.

4-5:1 Win:Loss Ratio

Our corrections win 4-5 times for every loss. This means for every correction that doesn't pan out, four or five others successfully prevent costly inventory problems.

This ratio isn't theoretical. It's measured from real corrections across our customer base. We track every recommendation and its outcome, continuously improving the model based on actual results.

From Uncertainty to Action

We transform supply chain guesswork into quantified probabilities you can act on.

01 THE INPUTS

Demand is Uncertain

Not a single forecast, but a full probability curve. Our AI runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations to map every possible demand outcome.

Supply is Uncertain

Lead time variability, supplier reliability, yield rates. We model the full distribution of when and how much arrives.

Uncertainty Compounds
02 THE RISK

Inventory Risk Has a Shape

When demand and supply uncertainty combine, the result is a complex inventory distribution with stockout risk on the left and excess risk on the right. Traditional safety stock can't cover these tail risks. We quantify them.

Choose Your Optimization
03 THE SOLUTIONS
SERVICE

Protect Service Levels

Shift inventory right to minimize stockout probability. Ideal when lost sales cost more than carrying inventory.

CAPITAL

Reduce Working Capital

Shift inventory left to free up cash. Accept slightly higher stockout risk in exchange for major capital reduction.

BALANCED

Trim Both Tails

Tighten the distribution to reduce extreme outcomes on both ends. Minimize surprises, stabilize operations.

Inventory Corrections

Real examples showing how we reduce stockout and excess events by quantifying probabilities and recommending optimal adjustments.

Excess Risk: 64% Probability of Excess

Bimodal distribution with inventory significantly exceeding max target. Correction reduces working capital while maintaining service.

Stockout Risk: 54% Probability of Stockout

Highly concentrated low-inventory distribution with high stockout risk. Correction brings stock to safe levels while avoiding excess.

Meet the Team

Jeff Alpert

Jeff Alpert

Founder & CEO
Aldo Marini

Aldo Marini

Founder & CTO

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